Using Forecasting Techniques in Crisis Management Assessment
Robert Burton & Ed Eaton
By applying Forecasting techniques at the onset or early warning stages of a potential crisis, you can resist the tendency to lock into a “narrative” before initial reports and related fact-pattern can settle into a clearer picture of what is happening and what it means for your enterprise – or institution.
The Forecasting model allows the assessment or forecasting team to explore the space of possibilities, and slows and limits the view of what is happening, what actions need to be initiated, and what you can say about it all.
We will walk through the concepts related to the Forecasting technique, consider various aspects of a problem, apply the concept to a public example, and identify how it can be applied further.
About the guest:
Ed Eaton, MBCI
Ed Eaton is a Senior Consultant and the Principal of Warner Gudlaugsson LLC with over twenty-five years of experience in governmental and private sector crisis management response, planning, training, drills and exercising. He also serves as a Senior Consultant for Contingency Management Consulting Group LLC of Mechanicsburg, PA.
Ed looks to apply new ideas alongside traditional ones to the practice of crisis management. Considering how to use System 2 thinking, how to leverage complexity and scale in response teams, and how to use adaptive feedback to improve understanding and outcomes.
Ed consults for companies, financial institutions and university clients in preparing for business crises, disruptions and emergencies. Over the past 25 years, he has supported preparedness efforts with fortune 25 consumer products and manufacturing companies, as well as other manufacturing, hospitality, financial, energy, food service, Department of Defense and university clients. Ed has developed and delivered dozens of exercises engaging various crisis management, business continuity and emergency response teams in realistic scenarios in support of improving team and organizational preparedness.
Ed is also a student and practitioner of process, defining and articulating strategic and tactical team processes and specialty forecasting processes for client teams. These processes have been adapted by a number of organizations in their crisis and emergency response systems.
Ed has facilitated numerous crisis and emergency tabletop and functional exercises and assisted higher ed clients and corporate clients in such industries as financial services, petroleum, energy, paper and packaging, food and beverage, packaged products and hospitality. In the last 5 years, he has supported global programs linking crisis management, emergency, business continuity, and cyber security.
Mr. Eaton has been designated Member Business Continuity Institute (MBCI) since his acceptance in March 2001 and is a member of the Association of Contingency Planners, where he is Membership Chair of the Hampton Roads Chapter. He served as US Navy Supply Corps Officer for 12 years, including time in the Reserves. He is a Past President of the Rotary Club of Churchland in Chesapeake, Virginia and Past Assistant Governor for Rotary District 7600 for 2017-`19.
Ed’s past consulting experience includes serving as Senior Consultant and Branch Manager of an environmental, safety and health consulting firm serving Department of Defense and private sector clients, and as Senior Consultant of a niche Crisis Management consulting firm serving private sector clients.
Bachelor of Science in Geology, Duke University
Master of Administration in Management, Webster University
Complex Systems Summer School 2019 – NECSI
C-Suite Cyber Response Workshop – Regent University, Virginia Beach
Real World Risk Institute (RWRI) – 2-day course
Graduate course work in Strategic Forecasting, Regent University, Virginia Beach
Incident Command System Level 700, 800, 100, 200, 100 HE
Certificate in Industrial Waste Treatment (Water), Tidewater Community College